--- title: "Cheetah case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cheetah ($432.87) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 79.05% over 140 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cheetah](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cheetah A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah?window=all) Price · $432.87 · 866 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $389.58 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.05% · 140 openings, odds method Variance · 15.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 79.05% ±65.98 140 openings 30 days · 79.05% ±65.98 140 openings since tracking started · 79.05% ±65.98 140 openings -0.5% 177.5% 355.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah?window=24h) | 8 | 79.03% ±276.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah?window=7d) | 140 | 79.05% ±66.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah) | 140 | 79.05% ±66.0 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cheetah?window=all) | 140 | 79.05% ±66.0 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 14.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 9.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $7,137 14,274 coins | 9.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $2,643 5,286 coins | 13.6% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $1,853 3,705 coins | 9.5% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,638 3,277 coins | 8.4% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 40 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 8.1% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 35.0% | $245 491 coins | 22.0% | 49 | 49.0 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 55.6% | $39.19 78.38 coins | 5.6% | 79 | 77.8 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $15.1K 30,112 coins 34.78x 2026-11-08 21:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,853 3,705 coins 4.28x 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,853 3,705 coins 4.28x 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,853 3,705 coins 4.28x 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,853 3,705 coins 4.28x 2026-11-05 20:36 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,638 3,277 coins 3.78x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) [piyeyooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/piyeyooo) $433 866 coins $1,638 3,277 coins 3.78x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,638 3,277 coins 3.78x 2026-11-08 21:22 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,638 3,277 coins 3.78x 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 2.91x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cheetah) [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $245 491 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $245 491 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $245 491 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $1,638 3,277 coins 3.78x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $433 866 coins $245 491 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $39.19 78.38 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $433 866 coins $245 491 coins 0.57x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $433 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% extraordinary 0.8% covert 62.1% classified 2.0% covert knife 35.0% best hit $15.1K (34.78x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt