---
title: "Chocolate case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chocolate ($25.44) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 16 items with odds, observed 78.15% over 266 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Chocolate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Chocolate

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate?window=all)

Price · $25.44 · 50.88 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $22.90 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.15% · 266 openings, odds method

Variance · 12.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 61.54% ±50.23 182 openings

30 days · 78.15% ±41.55 266 openings

since tracking started · 78.15% ±41.55 266 openings

-0.5% 195.5% 391.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate?window=24h) | 4 | 51.84% ±338.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate?window=7d) | 182 | 61.54% ±50.2 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate) | 266 | 78.15% ±41.5 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chocolate?window=all) | 266 | 78.15% ±41.5 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 266 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,979 17,957 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,012 4,025 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $818 1,635 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $430 860 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $271 541 coins | 9.5% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.88× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $202 404 coins | 8.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.13× |
| [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-mudder-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $188 376 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $156 311 coins | 6.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $94.29 189 coins | 12.4% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× |
| [AUG \| Copperhead (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $59.47 119 coins | 10.4% | 10 | 10.6 | 0.94× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $52.68 105 coins | 9.2% | 8 | 10.6 | 0.75× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $42.01 84.01 coins | 9.2% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.17 38.33 coins | 4.2% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $17.02 34.03 coins | 3.7% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.23 10.46 coins | 1.8% | 15 | 21.3 | 0.70× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) | 61.6% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 173 | 163.8 | 1.06× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=chocolate)

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-field-tested) Hidden $25.44 50.88 coins $52.68 105 coins 2.07x 2026-11-10 16:12 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $25.44 50.88 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:12 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $25.44 50.88 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:12 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) [KocvreKK](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/KocvreKK) $25.44 50.88 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:12 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $25.44 50.88 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $25.44 50.88 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $25.44 50.88 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $25.44 50.88 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $25.44 50.88 coins $17.02 34.03 coins 0.67x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

[Souvenir UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) [JohnDoe77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/JohnDoe77) $25.44 50.88 coins $94.29 189 coins 3.71x 2026-11-09 22:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.44 | 90.01% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 6.1% Extraordinary 0.5% extraordinary 9.8% mil spec 1.0% Industrial 1.0% industrial 8.0% milspec 4.0% #87c7ff 8.0% #4b69ff 61.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt