--- title: "Chopped case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Chopped ($0.05) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.79% from 14 items with odds, observed 75.75% over 40.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Chopped](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Chopped A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped?window=all) Price · $0.05 · 0.09 coins Advertised RTP · 86.79% · EV $0.04 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.75% · 40.9K openings, odds method Variance · 195.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 43.14% ±49.12 3,112 openings 7 days · 75.25% ±14.86 34K openings 30 days · 75.75% ±13.56 40.9K openings since tracking started · 75.75% ±13.56 40.9K openings -0.5% 46.3% 93.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped?window=24h) | 3,112 | 43.14% ±49.1 | −1.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped?window=7d) | 34K | 75.25% ±14.9 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped) | 40.9K | 75.75% ±13.6 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/chopped?window=all) | 40.9K | 75.75% ±13.6 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 10,000 | $28.13 56.25 coins | 7.2% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× | | [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $27.96 55.92 coins | 7.2% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× | | [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $26.67 53.33 coins | 6.8% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 6.4% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.78 5.56 coins | 7.1% | 41 | 40.9 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.69 5.38 coins | 6.9% | 36 | 40.9 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1.14 2.27 coins | 7.3% | 97 | 102.2 | 0.95× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $1.09 2.18 coins | 7.0% | 86 | 102.2 | 0.84× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $1.04 2.08 coins | 6.7% | 103 | 102.2 | 1.01× | | [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1.04 2.07 coins | 6.6% | 104 | 102.2 | 1.02× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $0.55 1.1 coins | 7.0% | 221 | 204.3 | 1.08× | | [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.17 0.33 coins | 4.2% | 414 | 408.6 | 1.01× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 97.3% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 12.5% | 39,747 | 39739.3 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=chopped) [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.04 0.09 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.04 | 86.79% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed uncommon 0.0% Industrial Grade 0.5% classified 0.1% Rare 0.0% restricted 0.4% Mythical 0.3% violet 0.5% mil spec 1.0% #4b69ff 97.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.79 on average: an expected loss of $13.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt