--- title: "Christmas Cracker case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Christmas Cracker ($4,480.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 77.69% over 348 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Christmas Cracker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Christmas Cracker A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker?window=all) Price · $4,480.13 · 8,960 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4,032.12 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.69% · 348 openings, odds method Variance · 9.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 64 openings · below min 7 days · 77.69% ±31.76 348 openings 30 days · 77.69% ±31.76 348 openings since tracking started · 77.69% ±31.76 348 openings -0.5% 72.0% 144.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker?window=24h) | 64 | 69.58% ±74.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker?window=7d) | 348 | 77.69% ±31.8 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker) | 348 | 77.69% ±31.8 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-cracker?window=all) | 348 | 77.69% ±31.8 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 18.2% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 18.0% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 13.0% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 10.2% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 9.0% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.72× | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 7.8% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $25.5K 51,019 coins | 6.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 4.6% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.44× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 3.7% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) | 17.0% | $0.49 0.98 coins | 0.0% | 58 | 59.2 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 17.0% | $0.48 0.96 coins | 0.0% | 56 | 59.2 | 0.95× | | [Sawed-Off \| Parched (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-parched-factory-new) | 17.0% | $0.46 0.91 coins | 0.0% | 77 | 59.2 | 1.30× | | [SG 553 \| Bleached (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-factory-new) | 17.0% | $0.44 0.88 coins | 0.0% | 63 | 59.2 | 1.06× | | [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.41 0.83 coins | 0.0% | 49 | 55.7 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.39 0.77 coins | 0.0% | 15 | 20.9 | 0.72× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $73.5K 147,047 coins 16.41x 2026-11-07 03:15 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $73.5K 147,047 coins 16.41x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $73.5K 147,047 coins 16.41x 2026-11-07 03:09 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $73.5K 147,047 coins 16.41x 2026-11-07 03:06 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $73.5K 147,047 coins 16.41x 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $72.4K 144,822 coins 16.16x 2026-11-07 05:32 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $72.4K 144,822 coins 16.16x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) [BlankTorch7918](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BlankTorch7918) $4,480 8,960 coins $52.4K 104,780 coins 11.69x 2026-11-09 20:01 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 9.21x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 9.21x 2026-11-11 01:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=christmas-cracker) [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [SG 553 | Bleached (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-factory-new) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $0.44 0.88 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 9.21x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Sawed-Off | Parched (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-parched-factory-new) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $0.46 0.91 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P250 | Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $0.39 0.77 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P90 | Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $4,480 8,960 coins $0.49 0.98 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-field-tested) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $0.41 0.83 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) Hidden $4,480 8,960 coins $0.48 0.96 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4,480 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 4.0% remarkable 3.0% covert 1.0% extraordinary 2.0% Consumer Grade 17.0% restricted 17.0% Common 34.0% #4b69ff 16.0% milspec 6.0% best hit $73.5K (16.41x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt