--- title: "Christmas Tree case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Christmas Tree ($254.72) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 74.77% over 186 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree rendered: 2026-11-11T17:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Christmas Tree](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Christmas Tree A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree?window=all) Price · $254.72 · 509 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $229.24 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.77% · 186 openings, odds method Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 75.74% ±44.88 182 openings 30 days · 74.77% ±44.40 186 openings since tracking started · 74.77% ±44.40 186 openings -0.5% 80.8% 162.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree?window=24h) | 48 | 73.74% ±87.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree?window=7d) | 182 | 75.74% ±44.9 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree) | 186 | 74.77% ±44.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/christmas-tree?window=all) | 186 | 74.77% ±44.4 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 194 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $7,082 14,163 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $6,282 12,564 coins | 5.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3,722 7,444 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $3,134 6,269 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $2,730 5,460 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1,048 2,096 coins | 13.7% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $710 1,420 coins | 12.4% | 4 | 7.8 | 0.52× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $578 1,155 coins | 12.6% | 6 | 9.7 | 0.62× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 14 | $506 1,012 coins | 15.4% | 9 | 13.6 | 0.66× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 10.0% | $206 413 coins | 9.0% | 22 | 19.4 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 20.0% | $52.31 105 coins | 4.6% | 41 | 38.8 | 1.06× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 49.6% | $1.69 3.37 coins | 0.4% | 103 | 96.3 | 1.07× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $255 509 coins $6,282 12,564 coins 24.66x 2026-11-09 11:38 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) Hidden $255 509 coins $2,730 5,460 coins 10.72x 2026-11-09 20:24 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $255 509 coins $2,730 5,460 coins 10.72x 2026-11-06 15:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $255 509 coins $1,048 2,096 coins 4.11x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $255 509 coins $1,048 2,096 coins 4.11x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $255 509 coins $1,048 2,096 coins 4.11x 2026-11-09 20:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $255 509 coins $1,048 2,096 coins 4.11x 2026-11-09 11:38 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $255 509 coins $1,048 2,096 coins 4.11x 2026-11-09 11:37 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $255 509 coins $1,048 2,096 coins 4.11x 2026-11-06 15:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $255 509 coins $710 1,420 coins 2.79x 2026-11-11 15:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=christmas-tree) [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $255 509 coins $1.69 3.37 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $255 509 coins $1.69 3.37 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) Hidden $255 509 coins $206 413 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) Hidden $255 509 coins $206 413 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $255 509 coins $710 1,420 coins 2.79x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $255 509 coins $1.69 3.37 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $255 509 coins $1.69 3.37 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $255 509 coins $206 413 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) Hidden $255 509 coins $52.31 105 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $255 509 coins $1.69 3.37 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $255 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 5.3% covert 30.8% legendary 0.3% Covert 4.0% restricted 10.0% Legendary 49.6% best hit $6,282 (24.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt