--- title: "Cloud Nine case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cloud Nine ($2.02) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 76.32% over 4,721 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cloud Nine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cloud Nine A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine?window=all) Price · $2.02 · 4.03 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $1.81 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.32% · 4,721 openings, odds method Variance · 47.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66.94% ±66.73 409 openings 7 days · 80.28% ±21.48 3,949 openings 30 days · 76.32% ±19.64 4,721 openings since tracking started · 76.32% ±19.64 4,721 openings -0.5% 67.0% 134.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine?window=24h) | 409 | 66.94% ±66.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine?window=7d) | 3,949 | 80.28% ±21.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine) | 4,721 | 76.32% ±19.6 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cloud-nine?window=all) | 4,721 | 76.32% ±19.6 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,721 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,125 2,251 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $110 219 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $94.29 189 coins | 26.0% | 23 | 23.6 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $19.17 38.33 coins | 31.7% | 130 | 141.6 | 0.92× | | [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.23 10.46 coins | 14.4% | 249 | 236.1 | 1.05× | | [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.87 3.74 coins | 5.2% | 204 | 236.1 | 0.86× | | [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.10 2.19 coins | 6.0% | 489 | 472.1 | 1.04× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 76.4% | $0.10 0.21 coins | 4.4% | 3,626 | 3606.4 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cloud-nine) [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC [MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $1.10 2.19 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $0.10 0.21 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [MP7 | Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $5.23 10.46 coins 2.60x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [MP7 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) Hidden $2.02 4.03 coins $1.10 2.19 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.02 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% industrial 79.9% #87c7ff 15.0% Uncommon 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt