--- title: "Cluck Draw case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cluck Draw ($0.08) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.63% from 16 items with odds, observed 86.80% over 44.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cluck Draw](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cluck Draw A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw?window=all) Price · $0.08 · 0.16 coins Advertised RTP · 84.63% · EV $0.07 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.80% · 44.7K openings, odds method Variance · 58.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 105 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.63% ±20.31 5,417 openings 7 days · 87.60% ±7.82 36.5K openings 30 days · 86.80% ±7.07 44.7K openings since tracking started · 86.80% ±7.07 44.7K openings 66.5% 87.5% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw?window=24h) | 5,417 | 87.63% ±20.3 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw?window=7d) | 36.5K | 87.60% ±7.82 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw) | 44.7K | 86.80% ±7.07 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cluck-draw?window=all) | 44.7K | 86.80% ±7.07 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $82.97 166 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $76.49 153 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $76.23 152 coins | 1.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $53.72 107 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $53.22 106 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.99 9.97 coins | 7.4% | 36 | 44.7 | 0.81× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.94 9.87 coins | 7.3% | 43 | 44.7 | 0.96× | | [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $3.94 7.87 coins | 8.7% | 80 | 67.0 | 1.19× | | [AUG \| Spalted Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2.76 5.52 coins | 6.1% | 73 | 67.0 | 1.09× | | [Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-withered-vine-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2.76 5.51 coins | 6.1% | 50 | 67.0 | 0.75× | | [P90 \| Scorched (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2.61 5.21 coins | 5.8% | 52 | 67.0 | 0.78× | | [MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2.55 5.1 coins | 5.6% | 53 | 67.0 | 0.79× | | [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.71 1.42 coins | 21.0% | 912 | 893.6 | 1.02× | | [SCAR-20 \| Torn (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-torn-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.68 1.35 coins | 19.9% | 874 | 893.6 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 49.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 3.7% | 22,380 | 22293.1 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 45.1% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 3.3% | 20,122 | 20173.0 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cluck-draw) [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-factory-new) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins $3.94 7.87 coins 49.19x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.08 0.16 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.08 | 84.63% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.0% #4b69ff 0.0% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% industrial 0.1% violet 0.1% restricted 2.2% Uncommon 0.3% consumer 45.3% #777777 0.1% mil spec 2.0% milspec 49.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.63 on average: an expected loss of $15.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt