--- title: "Coconut Crash case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Coconut Crash ($28.68) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 68.45% over 445 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash rendered: 2026-11-11T19:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Coconut Crash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Coconut Crash A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash?window=all) Price · $28.68 · 57.35 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.81 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 68.45% · 445 openings, odds method Variance · 21.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 49 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 70.53% ±49.51 341 openings 30 days · 68.45% ±43.34 445 openings since tracking started · 68.45% ±43.34 445 openings -0.5% 72.3% 145.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash?window=24h) | 40 | 0.02% ±144.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash?window=7d) | 341 | 70.53% ±49.5 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash) | 445 | 68.45% ±43.3 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coconut-crash?window=all) | 445 | 68.45% ±43.3 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 445 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,112 4,224 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,448 2,897 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,381 2,761 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,371 2,743 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,289 2,577 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $1,071 2,142 coins | 5.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 385 | $713 1,427 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $520 1,041 coins | 8.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $430 860 coins | 11.7% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $405 809 coins | 15.7% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $304 608 coins | 23.6% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 426 | 422.6 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins $1,381 2,761 coins 48.15x 2026-11-08 12:05 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-field-tested) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins $1,071 2,142 coins 37.35x 2026-11-06 23:15 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins $520 1,041 coins 18.15x 2026-11-07 15:49 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-well-worn) [Neowise](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Neowise) $28.68 57.35 coins $520 1,041 coins 18.15x 2026-11-03 13:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=coconut-crash) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $28.68 57.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $28.68 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.2% legendary 1.0% covert 2.2% Classified 0.1% classified 0.1% epic 0.1% Covert 0.7% Extraordinary 0.7% consumer 95.0% best hit $1,381 (48.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt