--- title: "Coinflip Dune case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Coinflip Dune ($13.09) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 2 items with odds, observed 93.65% over 123 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune rendered: 2026-11-11T18:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Coinflip Dune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Coinflip Dune A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune?window=all) Price · $13.09 · 26.18 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $11.78 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.65% · 123 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 50.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 93 openings · below min 30 days · 93.65% ±15.90 123 openings since tracking started · 93.65% ±15.90 123 openings 76.0% 95.0% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune?window=7d) | 93 | 94.83% ±18.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune) | 123 | 93.65% ±15.9 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/coinflip-dune?window=all) | 123 | 93.65% ±15.9 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 123 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 50.0% | $23.56 47.11 coins | 100.0% | 64 | 61.5 | 1.04× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 59 | 61.5 | 0.96× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=coinflip-dune) [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 1.80x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 1.80x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 1.80x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 1.80x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins $23.56 47.11 coins 1.80x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [pilavson](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/pilavson) $13.09 26.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:00 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $13.09 26.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 09:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.09 | 89.99% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.0% consumer 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt