--- title: "Command Ops case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Command Ops ($7.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 75.84% over 879 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Command Ops](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Command Ops A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops?window=all) Price · $7.58 · 15.15 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $6.82 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.84% · 879 openings, odds method Variance · 9.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 72.01% ±21.51 799 openings 30 days · 75.84% ±20.51 879 openings since tracking started · 75.84% ±20.51 879 openings -0.5% 116.3% 233.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops?window=24h) | 24 | 108.24% ±124.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops?window=7d) | 799 | 72.01% ±21.5 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops) | 879 | 75.84% ±20.5 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/command-ops?window=all) | 879 | 75.84% ±20.5 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 943 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,296 2,593 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $516 1,032 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $124 248 coins | 9.1% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $123 245 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.42× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $118 236 coins | 8.7% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $117 234 coins | 8.6% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $115 230 coins | 8.4% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.42× | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $53.36 107 coins | 7.8% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.74× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $50.61 101 coins | 7.4% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $37.64 75.28 coins | 6.9% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.10× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $34.03 68.06 coins | 6.2% | 9 | 11.8 | 0.76× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $30.12 60.24 coins | 6.6% | 9 | 14.1 | 0.64× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $26.68 53.36 coins | 6.3% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $23.56 47.11 coins | 6.9% | 20 | 18.9 | 1.06× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $21.29 42.58 coins | 6.2% | 23 | 18.9 | 1.22× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 85.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 822 | 809.9 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=command-ops) [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins $123 245 coins 16.17x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [iMadyyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/iMadyyyy) $7.58 15.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:04 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins $50.61 101 coins 6.68x 2026-11-11 00:52 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $7.58 15.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.58 | 89.98% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.8% covert 5.3% covert knife 1.5% other 1.5% Classified 1.0% #8847ff 1.5% restricted 1.6% consumer 85.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt