---
title: "Compass case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Compass ($19.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 71.70% over 505 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Compass](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Compass

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass?window=all)

Price · $19.40 · 38.8 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $17.46 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.70% · 505 openings, odds method

Variance · 41.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 72 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 23 openings · below min

7 days · 77.02% ±64.48 383 openings

30 days · 71.70% ±56.16 505 openings

since tracking started · 71.70% ±56.16 505 openings

-0.5% 233.0% 466.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass?window=24h) | 23 | 202.47% ±263.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass?window=7d) | 383 | 77.02% ±64.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass) | 505 | 71.70% ±56.2 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/compass?window=all) | 505 | 71.70% ±56.2 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 505 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| bondik (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bondik-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,065 14,130 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,119 2,238 coins | 6.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,036 2,071 coins | 5.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $882 1,765 coins | 7.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $710 1,420 coins | 6.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $598 1,195 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $506 1,012 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $473 945 coins | 13.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $32.69 65.38 coins | 13.1% | 34 | 35.4 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 91.6% | $5.02 10.04 coins | 26.3% | 466 | 462.7 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $1,036 2,071 coins 53.38x 2026-11-08 17:09 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $882 1,765 coins 45.49x 2026-11-09 17:50 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $710 1,420 coins 36.60x 2026-11-10 21:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=compass)

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $19.40 38.8 coins $32.69 65.38 coins 1.69x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) Hidden $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

[G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $19.40 38.8 coins $5.02 10.04 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.40 | 89.99% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.4% legendary 0.1% Covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% sunny 0.5% restricted 7.0% mil spec 91.6% best hit $1,036 (53.38x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt