--- title: "Count Down case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Count Down ($21.56) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 58.43% over 58 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down rendered: 2026-11-11T20:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Count Down](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Count Down A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down?window=all) Price · $21.56 · 43.11 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $19.40 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.43% · 58 openings, odds method Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 58 openings · below min 30 days · 58 openings · below min since tracking started · 58 openings · below min -0.5% 64.0% 128.5% **Small sample.** 58 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down?window=7d) | 58 | 58.43% ±69.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down) | 58 | 58.43% ±69.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/count-down?window=all) | 58 | 58.43% ±69.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $493 987 coins | 25.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $251 501 coins | 12.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $83.56 167 coins | 12.9% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $81.41 163 coins | 12.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $75.70 151 coins | 11.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $51.43 103 coins | 8.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $15.21 30.42 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× | | [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) | 81.0% | $3.01 6.01 coins | 12.5% | 51 | 47.0 | 1.09× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=count-down) [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [Souvenir Nova | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.56 43.11 coins $51.43 103 coins 2.39x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $21.56 43.11 coins $3.01 6.01 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.56 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 6.0% restricted 1.0% mil spec 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% Industrial Grade 3.0% other 84.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt