--- title: "Cozy Chicken case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cozy Chicken ($0.68) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.44% from 8 items with odds, observed 85.73% over 25.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken rendered: 2026-11-11T20:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cozy Chicken](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cozy Chicken A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken?window=all) Price · $0.68 · 1.36 coins Advertised RTP · 89.44% · EV $0.61 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.73% · 25.7K openings, odds method Variance · 54.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 75.54% ±32.94 1,912 openings 7 days · 83.49% ±10.40 19.2K openings 30 days · 85.73% ±8.98 25.7K openings since tracking started · 85.73% ±8.98 25.7K openings 42.0% 75.5% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken?window=24h) | 1,912 | 75.54% ±32.9 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken?window=7d) | 19.2K | 83.49% ±10.4 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken) | 25.7K | 85.73% ±8.98 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cozy-chicken?window=all) | 25.7K | 85.73% ±8.98 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $75.38 151 coins | 31.0% | 57 | 64.3 | 0.89× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $50.58 101 coins | 20.8% | 65 | 64.3 | 1.01× | | [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 400 | $31.00 62 coins | 12.7% | 67 | 64.3 | 1.04× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $18.01 36.01 coins | 7.4% | 57 | 64.3 | 0.89× | | [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $12.04 24.08 coins | 19.8% | 258 | 257.1 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2.54 5.08 coins | 4.2% | 233 | 257.1 | 0.91× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 3.3% | 474 | 514.2 | 0.92× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.8% | 24,500 | 24425.4 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-11 17:37 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-11 01:37 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-10 23:28 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-10 19:57 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins $75.38 151 coins 110.9x 2026-11-10 10:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cozy-chicken) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Klassique007](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Klassique007) $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.68 1.36 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.68 | 89.44% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% uncommon 0.3% industrial 0.3% consumer 1.0% #4b69ff 96.0% mil spec 2.0% best hit $75.38 (110.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.44 on average: an expected loss of $10.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt