--- title: "Cracked case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cracked ($29.17) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 107.41% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cracked](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cracked A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked?window=all) Price · $29.17 · 58.34 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.25 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 107.41% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min -0.5% 113.0% 226.5% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked?window=7d) | 6 | 72.03% ±153.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked) | 30 | 107.41% ±68.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cracked?window=all) | 30 | 107.41% ±68.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $266 531 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $266 531 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $256 512 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $251 503 coins | 9.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $251 502 coins | 9.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $51.73 103 coins | 9.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $51.63 103 coins | 9.8% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.67× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $51.39 103 coins | 9.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 14 | $28.13 56.25 coins | 7.5% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $17.07 34.14 coins | 5.2% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $11.07 22.14 coins | 3.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.04 12.08 coins | 2.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 11.0% | $3.61 7.22 coins | 1.5% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-factory-new) | 11.0% | $2.02 4.03 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.55 1.1 coins | 0.2% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× | | [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cracked) [USP-S | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.17 58.34 coins $17.07 34.14 coins 0.59x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-factory-new) Hidden $29.17 58.34 coins $2.02 4.03 coins 0.07x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC [Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.17 58.34 coins $51.63 103 coins 1.77x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC [MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) Hidden $29.17 58.34 coins $3.61 7.22 coins 0.12x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-field-tested) Hidden $29.17 58.34 coins $51.73 103 coins 1.77x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC [Dual Berettas | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-field-tested) [justsan](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/justsan) $29.17 58.34 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 19:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.17 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 2.0% covert 8.0% extraordinary 5.0% Classified 5.0% uncommon 7.0% industrial 8.0% Ancient 9.0% classified 10.0% #8847ff 11.0% consumer 11.0% violet 11.0% #777777 13.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt