--- title: "Cradle case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cradle ($26.85) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 75.58% over 312 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cradle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cradle A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle?window=all) Price · $26.85 · 53.69 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $24.16 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.58% · 312 openings, odds method Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 63.78% ±33.35 268 openings 30 days · 75.58% ±30.91 312 openings since tracking started · 75.58% ±30.91 312 openings -0.5% 87.5% 175.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle?window=24h) | 14 | 28.89% ±145.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle?window=7d) | 268 | 63.78% ±33.4 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle) | 312 | 75.58% ±30.9 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cradle?window=all) | 312 | 75.58% ±30.9 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 312 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,288 6,576 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $861 1,721 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $701 1,401 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 800 | $601 1,202 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 800 | $480 960 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $429 858 coins | 2.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 400 | $360 721 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $326 653 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 100 | $226 451 coins | 9.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $175 350 coins | 14.5% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.80× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $162 324 coins | 13.4% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $125 250 coins | 10.4% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.80× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $100 201 coins | 8.3% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $75.51 151 coins | 9.4% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 86.8% | $2.55 5.09 coins | 9.1% | 272 | 270.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cradle) [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) [optic1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/optic1000) $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $26.85 53.69 coins $2.55 5.09 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.85 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.9% other 2.3% Covert 2.0% gold 2.0% consumer 86.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt