--- title: "Crimson Syndicate case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Crimson Syndicate ($35.76) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.07% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate rendered: 2026-11-11T21:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Crimson Syndicate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Crimson Syndicate A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate?window=all) Price · $35.76 · 71.51 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $32.18 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.07% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 86.5% 173.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate?window=7d) | 8 | 49.70% ±117.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate) | 16 | 90.07% ±82.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crimson-syndicate?window=all) | 16 | 90.07% ±82.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $339 679 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $322 644 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $301 602 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $248 495 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $227 454 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $217 434 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $199 398 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $193 386 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $156 312 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $147 294 coins | 13.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $144 289 coins | 13.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $89.12 178 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $82.49 165 coins | 10.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $75.51 151 coins | 9.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $66.23 132 coins | 8.2% | 3 | 0.6 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) | 72.9% | $0.07 0.14 coins | 0.2% | 9 | 11.7 | 0.77× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=crimson-syndicate) [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $35.76 71.51 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $35.76 71.51 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $35.76 71.51 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $35.76 71.51 coins $75.51 151 coins 2.11x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-factory-new) Hidden $35.76 71.51 coins $66.23 132 coins 1.85x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) [rekztimmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/rekztimmy) $35.76 71.51 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $35.76 71.51 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $35.76 71.51 coins $0.07 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $35.76 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 0.2% covert 21.4% restricted 0.5% extraordinary 1.0% mil spec 76.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt