--- title: "Crisp case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Crisp ($1.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.77% over 3,232 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Crisp](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Crisp A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp?window=all) Price · $1.23 · 2.46 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $1.11 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.77% · 3,232 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.64% ±33.01 219 openings 7 days · 86.91% ±8.65 3,187 openings 30 days · 86.77% ±8.59 3,232 openings since tracking started · 86.77% ±8.59 3,232 openings 59.0% 92.8% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp?window=24h) | 219 | 92.64% ±33.0 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp?window=7d) | 3,187 | 86.91% ±8.65 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp) | 3,232 | 86.77% ±8.59 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crisp?window=all) | 3,232 | 86.77% ±8.59 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,232 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $256 512 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $7.39 14.77 coins | 6.7% | 39 | 32.3 | 1.21× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5.88 11.75 coins | 10.6% | 62 | 64.6 | 0.96× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.78 11.56 coins | 26.1% | 152 | 161.6 | 0.94× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.67 5.34 coins | 16.9% | 223 | 226.2 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.66 3.32 coins | 15.0% | 333 | 323.2 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.59 3.18 coins | 21.6% | 466 | 484.8 | 0.96× | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 60.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.8% | 1,957 | 1938.9 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=crisp) [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) [GrimViper3313](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimViper3313) $1.23 2.46 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 1.29x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $2.67 5.34 coins 2.17x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $2.67 5.34 coins 2.17x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $1.23 2.46 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.23 | 89.95% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.0% red 1.0% restricted 2.0% classified 15.0% Legendary 15.0% #4b69ff 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt