--- title: "Critical Hit case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Critical Hit ($254.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Critical Hit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Critical Hit A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit?window=all) Price · $254.23 · 508 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $228.81 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 40.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/critical-hit?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,501 3,002 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,433 2,866 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,383 2,766 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,296 2,593 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $1,010 2,020 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 11.0% | $269 538 coins | 12.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $261 522 coins | 12.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 11.0% | $259 519 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 11.0% | $257 514 coins | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 11.0% | $256 513 coins | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 20.0% | $83.53 167 coins | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $12.75 25.5 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=critical-hit) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $254 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.0% Covert 1.0% classified 12.0% restricted 31.0% #ffd700 11.0% Immortal 11.0% extraordinary 20.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt