--- title: "Cry Baby case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cry Baby ($0.06) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 80.97% over 22.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby rendered: 2026-11-11T20:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cry Baby](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cry Baby A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby?window=all) Price · $0.06 · 0.11 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $0.05 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.97% · 22.2K openings, odds method Variance · 19756.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 322 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72.58% ±320.09 7,407 openings 7 days · 84.15% ±200.48 18.9K openings 30 days · 80.97% ±185.01 22.2K openings since tracking started · 80.97% ±185.01 22.2K openings -0.5% 196.5% 393.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby?window=24h) | 7,407 | 72.58% ±320.1 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby?window=7d) | 18.9K | 84.15% ±200.5 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby) | 22.2K | 80.97% ±185.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cry-baby?window=all) | 22.2K | 80.97% ±185.0 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,714 15,428 coins | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $26.63 53.26 coins | 5.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $6.00 12 coins | 12.1% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× | | [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $5.63 11.26 coins | 11.4% | 24 | 22.2 | 1.08× | | [Nova \| Tempest (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $5.47 10.94 coins | 11.1% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $5.43 10.86 coins | 14.3% | 30 | 28.8 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 504 | $5.04 10.08 coins | 20.2% | 50 | 44.0 | 1.14× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 99.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 10.0% | 22,023 | 22031.4 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cry-baby) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.06 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.2% consumer 0.1% mil spec 0.1% restricted 0.2% #4b69ff 99.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt