--- title: "Crystal Key case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Crystal Key ($0.26) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.67% from 8 items with odds, observed 87.99% over 18K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Crystal Key](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Crystal Key A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key?window=all) Price · $0.26 · 0.52 coins Advertised RTP · 89.67% · EV $0.23 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.99% · 18K openings, odds method Variance · 10.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.84% ±16.19 1,491 openings 7 days · 89.06% ±4.95 16K openings 30 days · 87.99% ±4.66 18K openings since tracking started · 87.99% ±4.66 18K openings 67.0% 83.7% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key?window=24h) | 1,491 | 83.84% ±16.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key?window=7d) | 16K | 89.06% ±4.95 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key) | 18K | 87.99% ±4.66 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/crystal-key?window=all) | 18K | 87.99% ±4.66 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 47.2% | 349 | 359.8 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.04 4.07 coins | 26.2% | 531 | 539.6 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.35 0.7 coins | 6.0% | 686 | 719.5 | 0.95× | | [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 0.55 coins | 5.9% | 935 | 899.4 | 1.04× | | [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.15 0.3 coins | 3.9% | 1,109 | 1079.3 | 1.03× | | [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.10 0.2 coins | 6.4% | 2,690 | 2698.2 | 1.00× | | [R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 2.7% | 4,519 | 4497.0 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 1.7% | 7,169 | 7195.2 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=crystal-key) [P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.35 0.7 coins 1.35x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 21.17x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-field-tested) Hidden $0.26 0.52 coins $0.28 0.55 coins 1.06x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.26 | 89.67% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 2.0% restricted 3.0% #8847ff 4.0% Mil Spec 5.0% milspec 6.0% blue 15.0% industrial 65.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.67 on average: an expected loss of $10.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt