--- title: "Cupid case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cupid ($101.59) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 56.90% over 78 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid rendered: 2026-11-11T20:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cupid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cupid A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid?window=all) Price · $101.59 · 203 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $91.43 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 56.90% · 78 openings, odds method Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 64 openings · below min 30 days · 78 openings · below min since tracking started · 78 openings · below min -0.5% 64.3% 129.0% **Small sample.** 78 openings and 3.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid?window=7d) | 64 | 65.72% ±62.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid) | 78 | 56.90% ±56.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupid?window=all) | 78 | 56.90% ±56.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1,699 3,398 coins | 37.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $793 1,585 coins | 17.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $315 630 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $251 503 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 12.0% | $114 227 coins | 14.9% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 12.0% | $60.29 121 coins | 7.9% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.18× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 17.0% | $30.88 61.75 coins | 5.7% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 17.0% | $12.93 25.85 coins | 2.4% | 13 | 13.3 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 17.0% | $6.72 13.44 coins | 1.2% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.83× | | [P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) | 17.0% | $4.84 9.67 coins | 0.9% | 19 | 13.3 | 1.43× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) Hidden $102 203 coins $1,699 3,398 coins 16.73x 2026-11-09 06:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cupid) [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) Hidden $102 203 coins $60.29 121 coins 0.59x 2026-11-09 06:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) Hidden $102 203 coins $114 227 coins 1.12x 2026-11-09 06:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) Hidden $102 203 coins $114 227 coins 1.12x 2026-11-09 06:46 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) Hidden $102 203 coins $1,699 3,398 coins 16.73x 2026-11-09 06:46 UTC [P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) Hidden $102 203 coins $4.84 9.67 coins 0.05x 2026-11-09 06:46 UTC [P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) [SpannnXXX](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/SpannnXXX) $102 203 coins $4.84 9.67 coins 0.05x 2026-11-09 06:46 UTC [P2000 | Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) Hidden $102 203 coins $4.84 9.67 coins 0.05x 2026-11-09 06:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) Hidden $102 203 coins $30.88 61.75 coins 0.30x 2026-11-09 06:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) Hidden $102 203 coins $60.29 121 coins 0.59x 2026-11-09 06:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) Hidden $102 203 coins $30.88 61.75 coins 0.30x 2026-11-09 06:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $102 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 47.0% covert knife 2.0% restricted 51.0% best hit $1,699 (16.73x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt