--- title: "Cupids AK case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cupids AK ($38.25) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.82% over 3,913 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cupids AK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cupids AK A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak?window=all) Price · $38.25 · 76.49 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $34.42 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.82% · 3,913 openings, odds method Variance · 34.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 291 openings · below min 7 days · 94.75% ±19.21 3,597 openings 30 days · 92.82% ±18.41 3,913 openings since tracking started · 92.82% ±18.41 3,913 openings 61.0% 129.3% 197.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak?window=24h) | 291 | 129.33% ±67.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak?window=7d) | 3,597 | 94.75% ±19.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak) | 3,913 | 92.82% ±18.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cupids-ak?window=all) | 3,913 | 92.82% ±18.4 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,913 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2,694 5,388 coins | 15.7% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1,860 3,720 coins | 10.8% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.89× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,828 3,656 coins | 10.6% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.41× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1,749 3,497 coins | 10.2% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.41× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $1,699 3,398 coins | 9.9% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $1,396 2,792 coins | 8.1% | 3 | 7.8 | 0.38× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,371 2,743 coins | 8.0% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 7.6% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $211 423 coins | 6.1% | 36 | 39.1 | 0.92× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $82.97 166 coins | 4.8% | 76 | 78.3 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $51.39 103 coins | 3.0% | 74 | 78.3 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $17.14 34.28 coins | 1.5% | 96 | 117.4 | 0.82× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $16.67 33.34 coins | 1.5% | 120 | 117.4 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $9.27 18.53 coins | 1.3% | 225 | 195.7 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.27 12.54 coins | 0.9% | 202 | 195.7 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 77.4% | $0.04 0.08 coins | 0.1% | 3,020 | 3028.7 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-10 18:37 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-08 20:11 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-08 20:01 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-08 15:27 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-08 00:13 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-07 14:38 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-07 12:41 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-05 04:59 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $2,694 5,388 coins 70.44x 2026-11-04 18:13 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $1,860 3,720 coins 48.63x 2026-11-09 21:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cupids-ak) [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $51.39 103 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $51.39 103 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) [nigxoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/nigxoo) $38.25 76.49 coins $6.27 12.54 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $6.27 12.54 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $38.25 76.49 coins $0.04 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.25 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.2% #EB4B4B 0.2% classified 5.2% red 5.0% restricted 5.0% Uncommon 77.4% best hit $2,694 (70.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt