--- title: "Cursed Loadout case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cursed Loadout ($27.83) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 77.93% over 141 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Cursed Loadout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Cursed Loadout A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout?window=all) Price · $27.83 · 55.65 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $25.04 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.93% · 141 openings, odds method Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 89 openings · below min 30 days · 77.93% ±49.06 141 openings since tracking started · 77.93% ±49.06 141 openings 3.5% 92.0% 180.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout?window=24h) | 44 | 92.12% ±87.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout?window=7d) | 89 | 88.26% ±61.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout) | 141 | 77.93% ±49.1 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/cursed-loadout?window=all) | 141 | 77.93% ±49.1 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 141 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $333 666 coins | 88.6% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $33.09 66.18 coins | 8.8% | 9 | 9.4 | 0.96× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.35 6.69 coins | 0.9% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× | | [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.03 6.06 coins | 0.8% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× | | [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 0.8% | 5 | 9.4 | 0.53× | | [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.30 0.6 coins | 0.1% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× | | [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.03 0.06 coins | 0.0% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.17× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 53.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 77 | 75.3 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=cursed-loadout) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins $3.35 6.69 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [FAMAS | Night Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins $3.03 6.06 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins $333 666 coins 11.97x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 55.65 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.83 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.7% restricted 6.7% pink 6.7% Consumer Grade 6.7% other 6.7% mil spec 6.7% consumer 6.7% #4b69ff 53.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt