--- title: "Dark Night case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dark Night ($21.56) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 95.17% over 108 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night rendered: 2026-11-11T15:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dark Night](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dark Night A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night?window=all) Price · $21.56 · 43.12 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $19.40 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.17% · 108 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 39.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 68 openings · below min 30 days · 95.17% ±31.66 108 openings since tracking started · 95.17% ±31.66 108 openings 60.0% 100.5% 141.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night?window=7d) | 68 | 100.53% ±39.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night) | 108 | 95.17% ±31.7 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark-night?window=all) | 108 | 95.17% ±31.7 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $499 998 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $470 940 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $470 940 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $242 484 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Knives](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $233 465 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $231 463 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $226 452 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) | 38.0% | $31.71 63.42 coins | 62.1% | 35 | 41.0 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $29.07 58.14 coins | 10.5% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $10.59 21.17 coins | 3.8% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.88 9.76 coins | 1.8% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× | | [R8 Revolver \| Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3.10 6.19 coins | 1.1% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.06× | | [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $2.79 5.58 coins | 1.0% | 13 | 7.6 | 1.72× | | [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.43 0.87 coins | 0.2% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.53× | | [R8 Revolver \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.32 0.64 coins | 0.1% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× | | [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-factory-new) | 11.7% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.0% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dark-night) [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $499 998 coins 23.14x 2026-11-10 12:22 UTC [M249 | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $2.79 5.58 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 12:22 UTC [MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-field-tested) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $0.32 0.64 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $3.10 6.19 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:22 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) [prudent](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/prudent) $21.56 43.12 coins $31.71 63.42 coins 1.47x 2026-11-10 12:22 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $10.59 21.17 coins 0.49x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-field-tested) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $31.71 63.42 coins 1.47x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [M249 | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $2.79 5.58 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-field-tested) Hidden $21.56 43.12 coins $0.32 0.64 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.56 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.5% other 0.1% covert 0.5% Knives 0.3% extraordinary 38.0% industrial 7.0% classified 7.0% mil spec 7.0% consumer 7.0% Industrial Grade 7.0% Consumer Grade 25.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt