--- title: "Dark case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dark ($206.67) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 76.63% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dark](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dark A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark?window=all) Price · $206.67 · 413 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $186.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.63% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 81.5% 163.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark?window=7d) | 22 | 76.63% ±86.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark) | 22 | 76.63% ±86.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dark?window=all) | 22 | 76.63% ±86.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,481 4,962 coins | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 67 | $1,853 3,705 coins | 14.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,129 2,258 coins | 12.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,089 2,177 coins | 11.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,031 2,061 coins | 11.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $809 1,619 coins | 13.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $419 837 coins | 9.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $332 664 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $117 234 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $62.66 125 coins | 2.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $33.72 67.44 coins | 1.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 59.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 14 | 13.1 | 1.07× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $207 413 coins $1,853 3,705 coins 8.96x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dark) [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) [Apex5887](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Apex5887) $207 413 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 00:31 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $207 413 coins $33.72 67.44 coins 0.16x 2026-11-08 00:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $207 413 coins $332 664 coins 1.61x 2026-11-08 00:31 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $207 413 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 00:31 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $207 413 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 00:31 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $207 413 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 00:31 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) Hidden $207 413 coins $62.66 125 coins 0.30x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $207 413 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $207 413 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $207 413 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-07 02:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $207 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.5% other 8.0% Classified 2.0% gold 6.0% mil spec 7.0% classified 8.0% Consumer Grade 59.5% best hit $1,853 (8.96x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt