--- title: "Data case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Data ($1.21) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.75% from 9 items with odds, observed 82.52% over 1,520 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Data](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Data A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data?window=all) Price · $1.21 · 2.42 coins Advertised RTP · 89.75% · EV $1.09 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.52% · 1,520 openings, odds method Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95 openings · below min 7 days · 83.78% ±18.28 840 openings 30 days · 82.52% ±13.59 1,520 openings since tracking started · 82.52% ±13.59 1,520 openings 25.0% 80.0% 135.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data?window=24h) | 95 | 79.99% ±54.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data?window=7d) | 840 | 83.78% ±18.3 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data) | 1,520 | 82.52% ±13.6 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/data?window=all) | 1,520 | 82.52% ±13.6 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,520 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $48.14 96.27 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $21.29 42.58 coins | 5.9% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $15.38 30.75 coins | 12.7% | 15 | 13.7 | 1.10× | | [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $15.13 30.25 coins | 15.3% | 11 | 16.7 | 0.66× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $7.54 15.08 coins | 20.8% | 46 | 45.6 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $6.00 12 coins | 11.0% | 20 | 30.4 | 0.66× | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 18.2% | 60 | 54.7 | 1.10× | | [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) | 40.0% | $0.30 0.6 coins | 11.0% | 590 | 608.0 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 49.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 774 | 744.8 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=data) [Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.30 0.6 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.30 0.6 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.30 0.6 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [Imperialist](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Imperialist) $1.21 2.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.30 0.6 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.30 0.6 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $1.21 2.42 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.21 | 89.75% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 1.2% industrial 1.1% classified 5.0% #8847ff 3.6% mil spec 40.0% consumer 49.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.75 on average: an expected loss of $10.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt