--- title: "Deadline case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Deadline ($41.44) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 83.20% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Deadline](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Deadline A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline?window=all) Price · $41.44 · 82.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $37.29 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.20% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 110.3% 221.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline?window=7d) | 12 | 83.20% ±137.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline) | 12 | 83.20% ±137.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/deadline?window=all) | 12 | 83.20% ±137.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $809 1,619 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $783 1,565 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $758 1,515 coins | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $462 923 coins | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $435 870 coins | 11.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $419 837 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $418 836 coins | 11.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $221 443 coins | 11.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $105 210 coins | 11.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $51.00 102 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $44.27 88.53 coins | 5.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $33.56 67.12 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $12.62 25.24 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [AUG \| Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) | 67.0% | $2.56 5.11 coins | 4.6% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.87× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=deadline) [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $2.56 5.11 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 12:54 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $221 443 coins 5.34x 2026-11-10 12:54 UTC [SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $12.62 25.24 coins 0.30x 2026-11-10 12:54 UTC [SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $12.62 25.24 coins 0.30x 2026-11-10 12:54 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $2.56 5.11 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 12:54 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) [rekztimmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/rekztimmy) $41.44 82.88 coins $2.56 5.11 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 12:54 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $2.56 5.11 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 12:54 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $2.56 5.11 coins 0.06x 2026-11-10 12:54 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-factory-new) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $2.56 5.11 coins 0.06x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $41.44 82.88 coins $105 210 coins 2.54x 2026-11-08 20:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.44 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% extraordinary 8.2% #eb4b4b 0.3% covert 5.5% knifes 1.0% other 1.0% gold 5.0% Legendary 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 7.0% consumer 67.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt