--- title: "Death case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Death ($15.76) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 70.12% over 2,294 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death rendered: 2026-11-11T16:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Death](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Death A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death?window=all) Price · $15.76 · 31.52 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $14.18 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 70.12% · 2,294 openings, odds method Variance · 75.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 212 openings · below min 7 days · 71.97% ±42.15 1,640 openings 30 days · 70.12% ±35.64 2,294 openings since tracking started · 70.12% ±35.64 2,294 openings -0.5% 86.3% 173.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death?window=24h) | 212 | 54.89% ±117.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death?window=7d) | 1,640 | 71.97% ±42.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death) | 2,294 | 70.12% ±35.6 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/death?window=all) | 2,294 | 70.12% ±35.6 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,294 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,754 11,508 coins | 20.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 8.9% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $251 503 coins | 6.2% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $221 443 coins | 7.8% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.70× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $112 223 coins | 7.9% | 18 | 22.9 | 0.78× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $63.17 126 coins | 8.9% | 49 | 45.9 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $52.51 105 coins | 7.4% | 43 | 45.9 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $48.70 97.39 coins | 10.3% | 62 | 68.8 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $44.27 88.53 coins | 12.5% | 86 | 91.8 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $22.21 44.41 coins | 7.8% | 135 | 114.7 | 1.18× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.69 9.38 coins | 2.0% | 126 | 137.6 | 0.92× | | [R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) | 76.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 1,756 | 1743.4 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 79.84x 2026-11-08 16:25 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 79.84x 2026-11-07 17:43 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $1,258 2,517 coins 79.84x 2026-11-06 14:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=death) [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC [R8 Revolver | Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-grip-field-tested) Hidden $15.76 31.52 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.76 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.1% covert knife 2.4% extraordinary 0.5% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% restricted 3.0% Legendary 4.0% classified 5.0% industrial 6.0% milspec 76.0% best hit $1,258 (79.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt