---
title: "Default case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Default ($16.42) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 82.40% over 631 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default
rendered: 2026-11-12T06:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Default](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Default

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default?window=all)

Price · $16.42 · 32.83 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $14.77 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.40% · 631 openings, odds method

Variance · 20.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 28 openings · below min

7 days · 76.50% ±46.27 363 openings

30 days · 82.40% ±35.10 631 openings

since tracking started · 82.40% ±35.10 631 openings

-0.5% 85.8% 172.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default?window=24h) | 28 | 4.60% ±166.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default?window=7d) | 363 | 76.50% ±46.3 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default) | 631 | 82.40% ±35.1 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/default?window=all) | 631 | 82.40% ±35.1 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 631 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $760 1,520 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $701 1,401 coins | 7.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $579 1,159 coins | 9.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $527 1,055 coins | 8.9% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $481 961 coins | 8.1% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.54× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $402 803 coins | 13.6% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $340 680 coins | 11.5% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $276 552 coins | 9.3% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $231 461 coins | 7.8% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $118 236 coins | 8.0% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| [Souvenir SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-hazard-pay-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $85.33 171 coins | 5.8% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) | 95.0% | $0.76 1.51 coins | 4.9% | 607 | 599.4 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $760 1,520 coins 46.30x 2026-11-05 00:09 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [iMadyyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/iMadyyyy) $16.42 32.83 coins $701 1,401 coins 42.68x 2026-11-05 23:56 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $527 1,055 coins 32.12x 2026-11-06 21:31 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $527 1,055 coins 32.12x 2026-11-05 04:40 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $527 1,055 coins 32.12x 2026-11-04 20:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=default)

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) [Ravtok](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Ravtok) $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) Hidden $16.42 32.83 coins $0.76 1.51 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.42 | 89.99% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.1% covert 1.7% epic 0.5% covert knife 0.8% classified 1.0% Classified 1.0% Consumer Grade 95.0% best hit $760 (46.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt