--- title: "Diamond Rose case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Diamond Rose ($75.54) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 172.40% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose rendered: 2026-11-11T21:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Diamond Rose](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Diamond Rose A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose?window=all) Price · $75.54 · 151 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $67.98 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 172.40% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min 89.5% 154.3% 219.0% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 14.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose?window=7d) | 14 | 172.40% ±46.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose) | 14 | 172.40% ±46.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/diamond-rose?window=all) | 14 | 172.40% ±46.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| compLexity Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-complexity-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,723 3,447 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,448 2,897 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,405 2,810 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $834 1,669 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Factory New) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $809 1,619 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $504 1,008 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $503 1,006 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $264 527 coins | 5.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $259 517 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $155 310 coins | 6.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $152 304 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 90.3% | $50.22 100 coins | 66.7% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $504 1,008 coins 6.67x 2026-11-05 15:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $503 1,006 coins 6.66x 2026-11-05 22:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=diamond-rose) [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $503 1,006 coins 6.66x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $50.22 100 coins 0.66x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $50.22 100 coins 0.66x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $50.22 100 coins 0.66x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $50.22 100 coins 0.66x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) [JoeOnChicken](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/JoeOnChicken) $75.54 151 coins $50.22 100 coins 0.66x 2026-11-05 21:59 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $50.22 100 coins 0.66x 2026-11-05 15:44 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $50.22 100 coins 0.66x 2026-11-05 15:44 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $264 527 coins 3.49x 2026-11-05 15:44 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $75.54 151 coins $504 1,008 coins 6.67x 2026-11-05 15:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $75.54 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% covert 0.6% #eb4b4b 0.0% other 0.6% gold 1.5% covert knife 4.3% #ffd700 2.8% extraordinary 90.3% best hit $504 (6.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt