--- title: "Die Hard case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Die Hard ($39.94) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard rendered: 2026-11-11T19:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Die Hard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Die Hard A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard?window=all) Price · $39.94 · 79.87 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $35.94 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/die-hard?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,140 6,279 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,383 2,766 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $493 987 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $424 849 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $424 847 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $393 786 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 50 | $186 371 coins | 10.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $85.77 172 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $84.70 169 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $39.17 78.34 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 13.0% | $34.57 69.13 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $34.03 68.06 coins | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 13.0% | $24.98 49.95 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 13.0% | $18.99 37.97 coins | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 13.0% | $8.29 16.58 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 16.7% | $5.43 10.86 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=die-hard) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.94 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% Covert 0.1% classified 30.5% mil spec 17.2% Restricted 0.2% restricted 9.0% covert 4.0% Ancient 13.0% consumer 13.0% industrial 13.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt