--- title: "Dirt Cheap case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dirt Cheap ($0.11) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.35% from 21 items with odds, observed 88.32% over 45.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap rendered: 2026-11-11T18:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dirt Cheap](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dirt Cheap A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap?window=all) Price · $0.11 · 0.21 coins Advertised RTP · 88.35% · EV $0.09 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.32% · 45.2K openings, odds method Variance · 64.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.53% ±29.24 2,910 openings 7 days · 89.46% ±8.77 32.4K openings 30 days · 88.32% ±7.42 45.2K openings since tracking started · 88.32% ±7.42 45.2K openings 59.5% 89.5% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap?window=24h) | 2,910 | 89.53% ±29.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap?window=7d) | 32.4K | 89.46% ±8.77 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap) | 45.2K | 88.32% ±7.42 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dirt-cheap?window=all) | 45.2K | 88.32% ±7.42 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $137 275 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $134 267 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $128 255 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $54.87 110 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $52.31 105 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.68 9.35 coins | 5.0% | 59 | 45.3 | 1.30× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.53 9.06 coins | 4.9% | 44 | 45.3 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.00 8 coins | 4.3% | 35 | 45.3 | 0.77× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $3.67 7.34 coins | 4.0% | 49 | 45.3 | 1.08× | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3.48 6.95 coins | 3.7% | 50 | 45.3 | 1.10× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $3.24 6.47 coins | 3.5% | 45 | 45.3 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.99 5.97 coins | 3.2% | 54 | 45.3 | 1.19× | | [Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-withered-vine-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.76 5.51 coins | 3.0% | 42 | 45.3 | 0.93× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.63 5.26 coins | 2.8% | 50 | 45.3 | 1.10× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.49 0.99 coins | 16.0% | 1,373 | 1358.2 | 1.01× | | [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.45 0.9 coins | 14.6% | 1,343 | 1358.2 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.18 0.37 coins | 10.0% | 2,299 | 2263.7 | 1.02× | | [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.16 0.32 coins | 8.6% | 2,250 | 2263.7 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.13 0.25 coins | 6.7% | 2,338 | 2263.7 | 1.03× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 38.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 2.0% | 17,025 | 17203.7 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 40.1% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 2.2% | 18,216 | 18152.2 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins $137 275 coins 1,309x 2026-11-06 02:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dirt-cheap) [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:52 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-factory-new) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 17:52 UTC [Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins $0.45 0.9 coins 4.29x 2026-11-11 17:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:52 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [DOWANNAKNOW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DOWANNAKNOW) $0.10 0.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:52 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $0.10 0.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.10 | 88.35% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% classified 3.0% covert knife 0.0% violet 0.0% restricted 3.3% Rare 0.1% Uncommon 0.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.1% milspec 5.0% Mythical 5.0% consumer 45.1% #4b69ff 38.0% best hit $137 (1,309x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.35 on average: an expected loss of $11.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt