--- title: "Do Not Redeem case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Do Not Redeem ($0.28) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.52% from 6 items with odds, observed 66.59% over 5,455 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Do Not Redeem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Do Not Redeem A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem?window=all) Price · $0.28 · 0.55 coins Advertised RTP · 88.52% · EV $0.24 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 66.59% · 5,455 openings, odds method Variance · 677.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 55.93% ±183.81 770 openings 7 days · 69.74% ±73.69 4,791 openings 30 days · 66.59% ±69.06 5,455 openings since tracking started · 66.59% ±69.06 5,455 openings -0.5% 120.0% 240.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem?window=24h) | 770 | 55.93% ±183.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem?window=7d) | 4,791 | 69.74% ±73.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem) | 5,455 | 66.59% ±69.1 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/do-not-redeem?window=all) | 5,455 | 66.59% ±69.1 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,463 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 20.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7.44 14.88 coins | 30.6% | 59 | 54.6 | 1.08× | | [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5.79 11.57 coins | 23.8% | 45 | 54.6 | 0.82× | | [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $3.61 7.22 coins | 14.8% | 52 | 54.6 | 0.95× | | [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 8.3% | 85 | 109.3 | 0.78× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 95.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 2.0% | 5,222 | 5189.6 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=do-not-redeem) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins $5.79 11.57 coins 21.04x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.55 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.28 | 88.52% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% industrial 1.0% mil spec 1.0% #8847ff 1.0% restricted 2.0% #4b69ff 95.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.52 on average: an expected loss of $11.48 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt