---
title: "Doomsday case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Doomsday ($59.23) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 68.39% over 335 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Doomsday](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Doomsday

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday?window=all)

Price · $59.23 · 118 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $53.30 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 68.39% · 335 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 51.36% ±57.44 120 openings

30 days · 68.39% ±34.38 335 openings

since tracking started · 68.39% ±34.38 335 openings

-0.5% 148.0% 296.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday?window=24h) | 8 | 73.61% ±222.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday?window=7d) | 120 | 51.36% ±57.4 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday) | 335 | 68.39% ±34.4 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/doomsday?window=all) | 335 | 68.39% ±34.4 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 335 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 2,500 | $6,321 12,641 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 217 | $1,381 2,761 coins | 11.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,258 2,517 coins | 11.8% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $364 728 coins | 6.8% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.49× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $316 632 coins | 11.9% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $251 503 coins | 14.1% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $107 215 coins | 8.1% | 15 | 13.4 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $55.37 111 coins | 5.2% | 12 | 16.8 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $54.06 108 coins | 5.1% | 16 | 16.8 | 0.96× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $39.43 78.85 coins | 5.9% | 26 | 26.8 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $34.57 69.14 coins | 5.2% | 26 | 26.8 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $32.01 64.02 coins | 4.8% | 27 | 26.8 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 3.8% | 26 | 26.8 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 47.0% | $0.80 1.6 coins | 0.7% | 172 | 157.4 | 1.09× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $1,381 2,761 coins 23.31x 2026-11-03 20:26 UTC

[Souvenir M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $1,381 2,761 coins 23.31x 2026-11-03 00:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=doomsday)

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[Nova | Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $39.43 78.85 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $251 503 coins 4.24x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $54.06 108 coins 0.91x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 0.42x 2026-11-10 12:35 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) Hidden $59.23 118 coins $0.80 1.6 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 12:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $59.23 | 90.00% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.5% Classified 0.5% covert knife 3.0% Covert 4.0% mil spec 5.0% restricted 60.0% classified 16.0% Rare 8.0% best hit $1,381 (23.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt