--- title: "Double Or Nothing case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Double Or Nothing ($2,572.48) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 2 items with odds, observed 108.50% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing rendered: 2026-11-11T17:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Double Or Nothing](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Double Or Nothing A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing?window=all) Price · $2,572.48 · 5,145 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2,315.23 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.50% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 46.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 60.5% 108.5% 156.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 7.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing?window=7d) | 16 | 108.50% ±47.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing) | 16 | 108.50% ±47.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/double-or-nothing?window=all) | 16 | 108.50% ±47.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 46.7% | $4,962 9,924 coins | 100.0% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.21× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 53.3% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=double-or-nothing) [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,572 5,145 coins $4,962 9,924 coins 1.93x 2026-11-06 00:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,572 | 90.00% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 46.7% #4b69ff 53.3% best hit $4,962 (1.93x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt