--- title: "down bad 5% case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "down bad 5% ($3.64) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 103.89% over 464 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [down bad 5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · down bad 5% A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5?window=all) Price · $3.64 · 7.27 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 103.89% · 464 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 464 openings · below min since tracking started · 464 openings · below min -0.5% 80.5% 161.5% **Small sample.** 464 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5?window=7d) | 72 | 43.47% ±59.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5) | 464 | 103.89% ±56.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad-5?window=all) | 464 | 103.89% ±56.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins $389 779 coins 107.1x 2026-11-04 07:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=down-bad-5) [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) [votex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/votex) $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-08 21:48 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 09:06 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $3.64 7.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-05 09:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $389 (107.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 103.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $103.89 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt