---
title: "Down Bad case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Down Bad ($0.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.58% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.39% over 27.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Down Bad](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Down Bad

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad?window=all)

Price · $0.13 · 0.26 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.58% · EV $0.12 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.39% · 27.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 49.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.22% ±9.35 1,854 openings

7 days · 91.28% ±3.39 14.1K openings

30 days · 90.39% ±2.45 27.1K openings

since tracking started · 90.39% ±2.45 27.1K openings

78.0% 88.0% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad?window=24h) | 1,854 | 88.22% ±9.35 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad?window=7d) | 14.1K | 91.28% ±3.39 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad) | 27.1K | 90.39% ±2.45 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-bad?window=all) | 27.1K | 90.39% ±2.45 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $21.41 42.82 coins | 0.9% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $18.18 36.35 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $14.61 29.21 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $11.04 22.07 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.74 1.49 coins | 6.4% | 268 | 270.8 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.50 1 coins | 4.3% | 248 | 270.8 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.46 0.91 coins | 3.9% | 278 | 270.8 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.35 0.7 coins | 3.0% | 290 | 270.8 | 1.07× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.28 0.57 coins | 2.4% | 289 | 270.8 | 1.07× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.27 0.53 coins | 2.3% | 277 | 270.8 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) | 43.5% | $0.19 0.38 coins | 71.0% | 11,734 | 11778.1 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 1.3% | 2,718 | 2733.6 | 0.99× |
| [M249 \| Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.9% | 2,722 | 2733.6 | 1.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.9% | 2,729 | 2733.6 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 10.1% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.4% | 2,768 | 2733.6 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 10.1% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.4% | 2,748 | 2733.6 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 164.7x 2026-11-09 23:16 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 164.7x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 164.7x 2026-11-03 11:47 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $21.41 42.82 coins 164.7x 2026-11-03 11:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $14.61 29.21 coins 112.3x 2026-11-07 16:03 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $11.04 22.07 coins 84.88x 2026-11-10 13:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $11.04 22.07 coins 84.88x 2026-11-03 11:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=down-bad)

[R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $0.19 0.38 coins 1.46x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P250 | Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $0.46 0.91 coins 3.50x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.13 0.26 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $0.27 0.53 coins 2.04x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.26 coins $0.19 0.38 coins 1.46x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.13 | 89.58% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 10.1% classified 0.0% covert 0.0% restricted 0.0% blue 12.1% Mythical 1.0% #8847ff 1.0% Rare 11.1% grey 1.0% Uncommon 43.5% #4b69ff 10.1% industrial 10.1% best hit $21.41 (164.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.58 on average: an expected loss of $10.42 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt