--- title: "Down Very Bad case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Down Very Bad ($0.06) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.19% from 16 items with odds, observed 83.85% over 14.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Down Very Bad](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Down Very Bad A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad?window=all) Price · $0.06 · 0.11 coins Advertised RTP · 84.19% · EV $0.05 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.85% · 14.9K openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 48.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 52.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.02% ±9.39 1,718 openings 7 days · 84.78% ±3.89 9,991 openings 30 days · 83.85% ±3.19 14.9K openings since tracking started · 83.85% ±3.19 14.9K openings 73.0% 83.0% 93.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad?window=24h) | 1,718 | 83.02% ±9.39 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad?window=7d) | 9,991 | 84.78% ±3.89 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad) | 14.9K | 83.85% ±3.19 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/down-very-bad?window=all) | 14.9K | 83.85% ±3.19 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $8.97 17.94 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $7.49 14.98 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $5.99 11.98 coins | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4.49 8.98 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-digital-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.30 0.6 coins | 6.5% | 156 | 149.3 | 1.05× | | [PP-Bizon \| Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-anolis-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.20 0.4 coins | 4.3% | 160 | 149.3 | 1.07× | | [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.18 0.37 coins | 4.0% | 158 | 149.3 | 1.06× | | [UMP-45 \| Riot (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.14 0.27 coins | 2.9% | 130 | 149.3 | 0.87× | | [P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.12 0.23 coins | 2.5% | 140 | 149.3 | 0.94× | | [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.10 0.2 coins | 2.2% | 129 | 149.3 | 0.86× | | [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) | 42.0% | $0.07 0.15 coins | 68.0% | 6,362 | 6265.5 | 1.02× | | [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) | 10.4% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 2.2% | 1,525 | 1552.2 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 10.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 1,547 | 1552.2 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) | 10.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 1,522 | 1552.2 | 0.98× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 10.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 1,486 | 1552.2 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 10.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 1.1% | 1,608 | 1552.2 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=down-very-bad) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-spruce-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [SCAR-20 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [LouGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/LouGambles) $0.06 0.11 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC [Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-factory-new) Hidden $0.06 0.11 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.06 | 84.19% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 1.0% industrial 10.4% classified 0.0% other 1.0% Rare 1.0% #4b69ff 21.8% blue 2.0% Uncommon 42.0% consumer 20.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.19 on average: an expected loss of $15.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt