--- title: "Draft case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Draft ($16.35) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 72.56% over 78 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Draft](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Draft A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft?window=all) Price · $16.35 · 32.69 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $14.71 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.56% · 78 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 70 openings · below min 30 days · 78 openings · below min since tracking started · 78 openings · below min -0.5% 72.8% 146.0% **Small sample.** 78 openings and 12.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft?window=24h) | 9 | 68.43% ±76.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft?window=7d) | 70 | 78.14% ±27.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft) | 78 | 72.56% ±26.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/draft?window=all) | 78 | 72.56% ±26.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $104 208 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $66.81 134 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-silver-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $55.01 110 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $47.57 95.13 coins | 16.2% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× | | [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $46.50 93 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $42.01 84.01 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 1 in 33 | $39.00 78 coins | 8.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.85× | | [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $36.61 73.22 coins | 7.5% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $34.03 68.06 coins | 8.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× | | [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 22 | $31.00 62 coins | 9.5% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.63 53.26 coins | 9.1% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $22.21 44.41 coins | 10.6% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.47× | | [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 1 in 13 | $18.00 36 coins | 9.8% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.12× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 55.4% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 47 | 43.2 | 1.09× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=draft) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $16.35 32.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $16.35 32.69 coins $22.21 44.41 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $16.35 32.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $16.35 32.69 coins $22.21 44.41 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $16.35 32.69 coins $22.21 44.41 coins 1.36x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $16.35 32.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.35 32.69 coins $34.03 68.06 coins 2.08x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $16.35 32.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $16.35 32.69 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:45 UTC [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-silver-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.35 32.69 coins $55.01 110 coins 3.37x 2026-11-10 10:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.35 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% covert knife 0.3% other 0.4% Immortal 5.0% Mythical 1.5% classified 18.0% Rare 11.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% uncommon 4.5% #4b69ff 55.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt