---
title: "Dragon Blaze case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dragon Blaze ($999.41) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 32 items with odds, observed 80.67% over 744 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dragon Blaze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dragon Blaze

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze?window=all)

Price · $999.41 · 1,999 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $899.46 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.67% · 744 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 8 openings · below min

7 days · 80.67% ±20.37 744 openings

30 days · 80.67% ±20.37 744 openings

since tracking started · 80.67% ±20.37 744 openings

-0.5% 173.8% 348.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze?window=24h) | 8 | 151.04% ±196.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze?window=7d) | 744 | 80.67% ±20.4 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze) | 744 | 80.67% ±20.4 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-blaze?window=all) | 744 | 80.67% ±20.4 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 760 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $217K 434,217 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $112K 223,312 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $73.5K 147,047 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $72.4K 144,822 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $52.4K 104,780 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $31.6K 63,128 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $18.7K 37,392 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $15.1K 30,112 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100,000 | $12.1K 24,151 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $11.7K 23,410 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $10.6K 21,246 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,909 19,817 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,900 19,800 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,916 9,833 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 40.0% | $2,012 4,025 coins | 89.5% | 300 | 304.0 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.97 1.94 coins | 0.0% | 68 | 64.6 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.95 1.91 coins | 0.0% | 81 | 64.6 | 1.25× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.83 1.66 coins | 0.0% | 66 | 64.6 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.68 1.35 coins | 0.0% | 64 | 64.6 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.53 1.06 coins | 0.0% | 65 | 64.6 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.20 0.4 coins | 0.0% | 63 | 64.6 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.07 0.15 coins | 0.0% | 52 | 64.7 | 0.80× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $9,900 19,800 coins 9.91x 2026-11-05 11:24 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) [piyeyooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/piyeyooo) $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dragon-blaze)

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $0.83 1.66 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $0.97 1.94 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) [piyeyooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/piyeyooo) $999 1,999 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 2.01x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $0.97 1.94 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) Hidden $999 1,999 coins $0.68 1.35 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $999 | 90.00% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 40.5% legendary 0.0% remarkable 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% contraband 0.0% #8847ff 17.0% #4b69ff 8.5% classified 8.5% Mythical 8.5% restricted 8.5% milspec 8.5% best hit $9,900 (9.91x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt