--- title: "Dragon Or Doodle case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dragon Or Doodle ($7,492.50) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 67.21% over 452 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle rendered: 2026-11-11T19:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dragon Or Doodle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dragon Or Doodle A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle?window=all) Price · $7,492.50 · 14,985 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6,743.25 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.21% · 452 openings, odds method Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 67.21% ±26.58 452 openings 30 days · 67.21% ±26.58 452 openings since tracking started · 67.21% ±26.58 452 openings 23.0% 164.8% 306.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle?window=24h) | 16 | 164.81% ±141.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle?window=7d) | 452 | 67.21% ±26.6 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle) | 452 | 67.21% ±26.6 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-or-doodle?window=all) | 452 | 67.21% ±26.6 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $217K 434,217 coins | 8.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $112K 223,312 coins | 41.4% | 5 | 11.3 | 0.44× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 15.3% | 7 | 11.3 | 0.62× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $26.7K 53,347 coins | 9.9% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $24.8K 49,625 coins | 9.2% | 17 | 11.3 | 1.50× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $9,318 18,637 coins | 6.9% | 22 | 22.6 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 10.0% | $4,916 9,833 coins | 7.3% | 47 | 45.2 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 22.0% | $361 722 coins | 1.2% | 95 | 99.4 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 26.0% | $156 312 coins | 0.6% | 133 | 117.5 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 26.8% | $49.51 99.01 coins | 0.2% | 114 | 120.9 | 0.94× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [eklinga](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/eklinga) $7,493 14,985 coins $217K 434,217 coins 28.98x 2026-11-05 18:20 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $112K 223,312 coins 14.90x 2026-11-10 23:25 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $112K 223,312 coins 14.90x 2026-11-08 17:12 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $112K 223,312 coins 14.90x 2026-11-07 03:15 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $112K 223,312 coins 14.90x 2026-11-07 03:13 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $112K 223,312 coins 14.90x 2026-11-07 03:10 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [bigbombaclat](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/bigbombaclat) $7,493 14,985 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 5.50x 2026-11-08 17:12 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 5.50x 2026-11-07 03:15 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 5.50x 2026-11-07 03:13 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 5.50x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dragon-or-doodle) [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $4,916 9,833 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $361 722 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $156 312 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $361 722 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $361 722 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $156 312 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $7,493 14,985 coins $361 722 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $112K 223,312 coins 14.90x 2026-11-10 23:25 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $7,493 14,985 coins $26.7K 53,347 coins 3.56x 2026-11-10 23:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7,493 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.3% other 74.8% best hit $217K (28.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt