---
title: "Dragon Trigger case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dragon Trigger ($0.64) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 16 items with odds, observed 87.93% over 3,607 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dragon Trigger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dragon Trigger

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger?window=all)

Price · $0.64 · 1.27 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $0.57 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.93% · 3,607 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.36% ±6.33 1,215 openings

7 days · 89.05% ±4.01 3,029 openings

30 days · 87.93% ±3.68 3,607 openings

since tracking started · 87.93% ±3.68 3,607 openings

80.5% 87.5% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger?window=24h) | 1,215 | 87.36% ±6.33 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger?window=7d) | 3,029 | 89.05% ±4.01 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger) | 3,607 | 87.93% ±3.68 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trigger?window=all) | 3,607 | 87.93% ±3.68 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,639 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.88 9.75 coins | 8.5% | 27 | 36.4 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.53 9.06 coins | 7.9% | 37 | 36.4 | 1.02× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.69 3.37 coins | 8.8% | 114 | 109.2 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.52 3.03 coins | 8.0% | 101 | 109.2 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.09 2.17 coins | 7.6% | 150 | 145.6 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.06 2.11 coins | 7.4% | 135 | 145.6 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 7.1% | 150 | 145.6 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.68 1.36 coins | 6.0% | 184 | 182.0 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.64 1.27 coins | 5.6% | 182 | 182.0 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.52 1.04 coins | 9.1% | 351 | 363.9 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.33 0.65 coins | 5.7% | 373 | 363.9 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.31 0.62 coins | 5.4% | 354 | 363.9 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Drought (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-drought-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.28 0.55 coins | 4.8% | 374 | 363.9 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.24 0.48 coins | 4.2% | 368 | 363.9 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.22 0.44 coins | 3.9% | 360 | 363.9 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 10.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 379 | 363.9 | 1.04× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dragon-trigger)

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-factory-new) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins $0.31 0.62 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins $0.33 0.65 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-factory-new) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins $0.31 0.62 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins $0.33 0.65 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins $0.33 0.65 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.64 1.27 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins $0.24 0.48 coins 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) Hidden $0.64 1.27 coins $0.33 0.65 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.64 | 89.97% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 1.0% covert 1.0% Legendary 3.0% #777777 3.0% mil spec 4.0% #8847ff 8.0% Mil Spec 5.0% restricted 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% gray 10.0% Common 20.0% industrial 10.0% grey 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt