--- title: "Dragon Trophy case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dragon Trophy ($51.89) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 79.14% over 648 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy rendered: 2026-11-11T15:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dragon Trophy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dragon Trophy A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy?window=all) Price · $51.89 · 104 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $46.69 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.14% · 648 openings, odds method Variance · 70.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.90% ±113.92 210 openings 7 days · 78.79% ±68.67 578 openings 30 days · 79.14% ±64.85 648 openings since tracking started · 79.14% ±64.85 648 openings -0.5% 100.0% 200.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy?window=24h) | 210 | 85.90% ±113.9 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy?window=7d) | 578 | 78.79% ±68.7 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy) | 648 | 79.14% ±64.9 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dragon-trophy?window=all) | 648 | 79.14% ±64.9 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 648 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $712 1,424 coins | 68.6% | 27 | 29.2 | 0.93× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $42.01 84.01 coins | 8.1% | 73 | 58.3 | 1.25× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $32.01 64.02 coins | 1.0% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.03× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $29.05 58.1 coins | 1.9% | 15 | 19.4 | 0.77× | | [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 16.0% | $13.05 26.1 coins | 4.5% | 109 | 103.7 | 1.05× | | [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) | 16.0% | $7.88 15.75 coins | 2.7% | 112 | 103.7 | 1.08× | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) | 12.0% | $7.26 14.51 coins | 1.9% | 76 | 77.8 | 0.98× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-factory-new) | 13.0% | $4.49 8.98 coins | 1.3% | 70 | 84.2 | 0.83× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $3.67 7.34 coins | 0.6% | 61 | 51.8 | 1.18× | | [M249 \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.03 4.05 coins | 0.3% | 47 | 51.8 | 0.91× | | [P250 \| Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.61 3.21 coins | 0.3% | 48 | 58.3 | 0.82× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $712 1,424 coins 13.72x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dragon-trophy) [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $51.89 104 coins $3.67 7.34 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $7.88 15.75 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $29.05 58.1 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $7.88 15.75 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $13.05 26.1 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [P250 | Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $1.61 3.21 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [P250 | Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $1.61 3.21 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $13.05 26.1 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 15:48 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) [EliteRift1189](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteRift1189) $51.89 104 coins $3.67 7.34 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC [SG 553 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-field-tested) Hidden $51.89 104 coins $7.26 14.51 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.89 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.0% extraordinary 13.5% restricted 1.5% mil spec 16.0% #4b69ff 16.0% Common 20.0% classified 13.0% industrial 9.0% best hit $712 (13.72x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt