---
title: "Dreamer case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dreamer ($1.67) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.86% from 16 items with odds, observed 154.00% over 4,822 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dreamer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dreamer

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer?window=all)

Price · $1.67 · 3.33 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.86% · EV $1.50 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 154.00% · 4,822 openings, odds method

Variance · 163.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.97% ±93.77 716 openings

7 days · 122.05% ±38.11 4,335 openings

30 days · 154.00% ±36.13 4,822 openings

since tracking started · 154.00% ±36.13 4,822 openings

-0.5% 95.3% 191.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.86% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (117.87% – 190.14%, 4,822 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer?window=24h) | 716 | 76.97% ±93.8 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer?window=7d) | 4,335 | 122.05% ±38.1 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer) | 4,822 | 154.00% ±36.1 | +3.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dreamer?window=all) | 4,822 | 154.00% ±36.1 | +3.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,822 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,198 8,395 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,134 6,269 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,955 5,910 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,828 3,656 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $809 1,619 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $534 1,067 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $26.67 53.33 coins | 17.6% | 45 | 47.7 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mayan Dreams (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mayan-dreams-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.16 6.31 coins | 10.5% | 216 | 241.1 | 0.90× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.04 4.07 coins | 13.6% | 460 | 482.2 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.61 3.21 coins | 21.5% | 1,032 | 964.4 | 1.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.04 2.07 coins | 10.4% | 736 | 723.3 | 1.02× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.79 1.58 coins | 7.9% | 691 | 723.3 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 4.0% | 580 | 578.6 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.23 0.47 coins | 1.9% | 581 | 578.6 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.14 0.28 coins | 0.9% | 479 | 482.2 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $3,134 6,269 coins 1,882x 2026-11-09 01:20 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $2,955 5,910 coins 1,775x 2026-11-04 12:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dreamer)

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $0.23 0.47 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[P250 | Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) [chxngezs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chxngezs) $1.67 3.33 coins $1.61 3.21 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[P250 | Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $1.61 3.21 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-field-tested) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $0.14 0.28 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[P250 | Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $1.61 3.21 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) [chxngezs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chxngezs) $1.67 3.33 coins $0.79 1.58 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

[MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) Hidden $1.67 3.33 coins $2.04 4.07 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.67 | 89.86% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% contraband 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Industrial Grade 6.0% restricted 25.0% industrial 20.0% Mythical 25.0% blue 12.0% #8847ff 12.0% best hit $3,134 (1,882x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.86 on average: an expected loss of $10.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt