--- title: "Dunce case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dunce ($0.24) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.76% from 12 items with odds, observed 86.53% over 13.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dunce](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dunce A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce?window=all) Price · $0.24 · 0.48 coins Advertised RTP · 89.76% · EV $0.22 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.53% · 13.5K openings, odds method Variance · 14.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.08% ±19.83 1,425 openings 7 days · 86.70% ±6.57 13K openings 30 days · 86.53% ±6.44 13.5K openings since tracking started · 86.53% ±6.44 13.5K openings 61.5% 82.0% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce?window=24h) | 1,425 | 82.08% ±19.8 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce?window=7d) | 13K | 86.70% ±6.57 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce) | 13.5K | 86.53% ±6.44 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dunce?window=all) | 13.5K | 86.53% ±6.44 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $51.37 103 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $49.74 99.48 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 4,000 | $28.13 56.25 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× | | [P2000 \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $11.18 22.35 coins | 2.6% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× | | [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $4.72 9.43 coins | 3.3% | 24 | 20.3 | 1.18× | | [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 2.8% | 30 | 27.0 | 1.11× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $2.75 5.49 coins | 3.8% | 60 | 40.5 | 1.48× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $1.17 2.33 coins | 3.2% | 88 | 81.0 | 1.09× | | [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.77 1.54 coins | 3.6% | 135 | 135.1 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.34 0.67 coins | 4.7% | 399 | 405.2 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.30 0.61 coins | 4.2% | 418 | 405.2 | 1.03× | | [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) | 91.7% | $0.15 0.3 coins | 63.8% | 12,345 | 12380.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Charm | Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $28.13 56.25 coins 117.2x 2026-11-10 06:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dunce) [P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $0.30 0.61 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) [Titan](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Titan) $0.24 0.48 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 3.21x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) [Titan](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Titan) $0.24 0.48 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Tec-9 | Rebel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $0.24 0.48 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.24 | 89.76% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.5% uncommon 0.0% industrial 0.1% other 0.2% restricted 0.6% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% mil spec 3.0% Mythical 3.0% milspec 91.7% best hit $28.13 (117.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.76 on average: an expected loss of $10.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt