--- title: "Dust 2 case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dust 2 ($4.77) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.13% over 426 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Dust 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Dust 2 A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2?window=all) Price · $4.77 · 9.54 coins Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $4.29 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.13% · 426 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96 openings · below min 7 days · 94.08% ±20.97 334 openings 30 days · 96.13% ±18.57 426 openings since tracking started · 96.13% ±18.57 426 openings 72.5% 113.5% 154.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2?window=24h) | 96 | 114.55% ±39.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2?window=7d) | 334 | 94.08% ±21.0 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2) | 426 | 96.13% ±18.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/dust-2?window=all) | 426 | 96.13% ±18.6 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 426 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $66.81 134 coins | 15.6% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.64× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $50.22 100 coins | 11.7% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $35.95 71.89 coins | 8.4% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $23.04 46.07 coins | 10.7% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.17× | | [Tec-9 \| Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.80 25.6 coins | 14.9% | 23 | 21.3 | 1.08× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 6.4% | 21 | 21.3 | 0.99× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.54 5.08 coins | 3.0% | 24 | 21.3 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 80.0% | $1.57 3.14 coins | 29.3% | 335 | 340.8 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=dust-2) [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $4.77 9.54 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [OttoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/OttoW) $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [OttoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/OttoW) $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) Hidden $4.77 9.54 coins $1.57 3.14 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.77 | 89.91% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert knife 1.0% extraordinary 1.0% covert 1.0% classified 7.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% violet 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt