---
title: "Easter Mirage case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Easter Mirage ($18.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 147.35% over 101 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Easter Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Easter Mirage

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage?window=all)

Price · $18.13 · 36.26 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $16.31 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 147.35% · 101 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 93 openings · below min

30 days · 147.35% ±53.34 101 openings

since tracking started · 147.35% ±53.34 101 openings

89.5% 152.3% 215.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.01% – 200.68%, 101 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage?window=7d) | 93 | 158.75% ±55.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage) | 101 | 147.35% ±53.3 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/easter-mirage?window=all) | 101 | 147.35% ±53.3 | +2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 101 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 5.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $323 645 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $235 470 coins | 10.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $130 259 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $112 223 coins | 8.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $39.29 78.58 coins | 14.5% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $33.19 66.38 coins | 12.2% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.16× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $28.98 57.96 coins | 8.9% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.39× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $28.89 57.77 coins | 8.9% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $26.89 53.78 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $22.31 44.61 coins | 4.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $21.41 42.82 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $11.31 22.62 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $8.20 16.4 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.75 13.49 coins | 0.4% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.97× |
| [AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) | 63.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 62 | 64.1 | 0.97× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 69.85x 2026-11-08 16:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=easter-mirage)

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $18.13 36.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins $33.19 66.38 coins 1.83x 2026-11-09 23:41 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins $28.89 57.77 coins 1.59x 2026-11-09 23:41 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:41 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins $130 259 coins 7.15x 2026-11-09 23:41 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:41 UTC

[AUG | Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) Hidden $18.13 36.26 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-09 23:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.13 | 89.98% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 11.3% sunny 0.5% other 0.7% restricted 8.0% classified 16.0% Common 63.5% best hit $1,266 (69.85x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt