--- title: "Eden case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Eden ($25.01) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 80.02% over 429 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Eden](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Eden A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden?window=all) Price · $25.01 · 50.01 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $22.50 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.02% · 429 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 101.94% ±33.63 229 openings 30 days · 80.02% ±24.57 429 openings since tracking started · 80.02% ±24.57 429 openings -0.5% 108.0% 216.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden?window=24h) | 8 | 35.69% ±179.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden?window=7d) | 229 | 101.94% ±33.6 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden) | 429 | 80.02% ±24.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/eden?window=all) | 429 | 80.02% ±24.6 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 429 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,845 5,691 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $316 632 coins | 14.1% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $250 500 coins | 22.2% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $137 274 coins | 18.3% | 9 | 12.9 | 0.70× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $65.10 130 coins | 11.6% | 22 | 17.2 | 1.28× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.63 53.26 coins | 11.8% | 45 | 42.9 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 39.0% | $11.04 22.07 coins | 19.1% | 163 | 167.3 | 0.97× | | [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 41.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 0.4% | 179 | 175.8 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=eden) [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $26.63 53.26 coins 1.06x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $11.04 22.07 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $11.04 22.07 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $11.04 22.07 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) [optic1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/optic1000) $25.01 50.01 coins $11.04 22.07 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 22:32 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 50.01 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.01 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.0% covert knife 4.0% covert 2.0% consumer 4.0% classified 10.0% restricted 39.0% #4b69ff 41.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt