--- title: "Elf Toys case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Elf Toys ($62.72) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 56.14% over 122 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys rendered: 2026-11-11T21:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Elf Toys](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Elf Toys A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys?window=all) Price · $62.72 · 125 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $56.44 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 56.14% · 122 openings, odds method Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 64 openings · below min 7 days · 104 openings · below min 30 days · 122 openings · below min since tracking started · 122 openings · below min -0.5% 66.8% 134.0% **Small sample.** 122 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys?window=24h) | 64 | 62.78% ±70.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys?window=7d) | 104 | 63.70% ±55.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys) | 122 | 56.14% ±51.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elf-toys?window=all) | 122 | 56.14% ±51.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $1,138 2,276 coins | 20.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $1,022 2,043 coins | 18.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $675 1,351 coins | 12.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $658 1,317 coins | 11.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.64× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $506 1,012 coins | 9.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) | 15.0% | $75.09 150 coins | 20.0% | 11 | 18.3 | 0.60× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 25.0% | $19.18 38.36 coins | 8.5% | 24 | 30.5 | 0.79× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) | 25.0% | $1.56 3.11 coins | 0.7% | 31 | 30.5 | 1.02× | | [M249 \| Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 52 | 36.6 | 1.42× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [chuubs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chuubs) $62.72 125 coins $1,138 2,276 coins 18.15x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $658 1,317 coins 10.50x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $658 1,317 coins 10.50x 2026-11-08 11:17 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $506 1,012 coins 8.06x 2026-11-10 10:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=elf-toys) [CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $1.56 3.11 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC [M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $1.56 3.11 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC [M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC [M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC [M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $19.18 38.36 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC [M249 | Gator Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-field-tested) [chuubs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chuubs) $62.72 125 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $19.18 38.36 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $62.72 125 coins $75.09 150 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $62.72 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 30.0% covert 5.0% mil spec 40.0% Consumer Grade 25.0% best hit $1,138 (18.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt