--- title: "Elfs Rifle case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Elfs Rifle ($2.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.89% from 8 items with odds, observed 79.09% over 2,488 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle rendered: 2026-11-11T19:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Elfs Rifle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Elfs Rifle A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle?window=all) Price · $2.40 · 4.8 coins Advertised RTP · 89.89% · EV $2.16 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.09% · 2,488 openings, odds method Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.90% ±32.85 284 openings 7 days · 74.63% ±14.55 1,448 openings 30 days · 79.09% ±11.10 2,488 openings since tracking started · 79.09% ±11.10 2,488 openings 41.5% 75.0% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle?window=24h) | 284 | 74.90% ±32.9 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle?window=7d) | 1,448 | 74.63% ±14.6 | −2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle) | 2,488 | 79.09% ±11.1 | −1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/elfs-rifle?window=all) | 2,488 | 79.09% ±11.1 | −1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,488 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $57.88 116 coins | 26.8% | 18 | 24.9 | 0.72× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $15.17 30.34 coins | 28.1% | 94 | 99.5 | 0.94× | | [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.07 24.13 coins | 28.0% | 114 | 124.4 | 0.92× | | [AUG \| Navy Murano (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.76 5.52 coins | 7.7% | 137 | 149.3 | 0.92× | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.35 2.69 coins | 4.4% | 180 | 174.2 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.72 1.44 coins | 2.7% | 187 | 199.0 | 0.94× | | [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.34 0.67 coins | 1.4% | 210 | 223.9 | 0.94× | | [AUG \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) | 60.0% | $0.04 0.07 coins | 1.0% | 1,548 | 1492.8 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=elfs-rifle) [Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $0.72 1.44 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $1.35 2.69 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $12.07 24.13 coins 5.03x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $0.34 0.67 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $0.04 0.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.8 coins $0.34 0.67 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.40 | 89.89% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.0% classified 4.0% #777777 6.0% restricted 15.0% mil spec 9.0% Common 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.89 on average: an expected loss of $10.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt